- Hamas Attacks on Israeli Citizens Should Be Condemned Without Hesitation, Say 59%; And 54% Say Israel Had No Choice but to Attack Hamas
- 2024 Nominees: 55% of Dems Prefer Someone Else Over Biden; Trump is Choice of 2/3 of Reps; General: Biden v. Trump: 46-36%; Biden v. Trump v. RFK v. West: 37-28-18-5%
Loudonville, NY. Nearly three-quarters of New Yorkers think Jews in New York are currently experiencing a great deal (37%) or some (36%) anti-Semitism, and of those, 75% said that the level of anti-Semitism has increased since the attacks on October 7. At the same time, 62% say Muslims in New York are experiencing a great deal (24%) or some (38%) Islamophobia, and of those, 59% say that has increased since October 7, according to a Siena College poll of registered New York State voters released today.
Nearly six in 10 say the Hamas attacks on Israeli citizens are an unspeakable crime that should be condemned without hesitation or explanation, while 25% say they condemn the murder of civilians but believe the attacks were a result of decades of Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians. And while 30% say the death of Palestinian civilians should be condemned without hesitation or explanation, a majority, 54%, say they condemn the killing of innocent civilians in Gaza, but Israel had no choice but to attack Hamas to protect itself and free hostages.
“New Yorkers see both anti-Semitism and, to a slightly lesser degree, Islamophobia as widespread, and both have increased since the October 7 Hamas attacks in Israel. At least two-thirds of voters from every region and party say that Jews are experiencing a great deal or some anti-Semitism,” said Dr. Don Levy, Director of the Siena College Research Institute. “And a strong majority of Democrats, independents, and voters from every region – as well as a plurality of Republicans – say Muslims are experiencing a great deal or some Islamophobia.
“At least two-thirds of voters from every party and region that say Jews are experiencing anti-Semitism say it has increased since October 7, while at least 58% of voters from every region and party that say Muslims are experiencing Islamophobia see an increase in it since October 7,” Levy said. “Three-quarters of Jews think there is a great deal of anti-Semitism, and 95% of those seeing anti-Semitism think it has increased since the attack. When it comes to Islamophobia, only 24% of Jews say Muslims are experiencing a great deal of Islamophobia, and of those seeing Muslims experiencing Islamophobia, 44% say it has increased.”
“A strong majority comes down on the side of Israel in this ongoing war. Majorities from every region and party say that the Hamas attacks should be condemned without hesitation. While this view is held by two-thirds of white voters, Black and Latino voters are closely divided between the choices of condemnation without explanation, and condemnation along with placing blame on Israel’s treatment of Palestinians,” Levy said.
“Only 30% of New Yorkers say that the death of Palestinian civilians at the hand of Israeli attacks on Hamas in Gaza should be condemned without explanation. A majority, 54% – including majorities of Democrats, Republicans, independents, and voters from upstate and the downstate suburbs – say that they condemn the killing of innocent civilians in Gaza, but that Israel was left with no choice but to attack Hamas,” Levy said. “A plurality of New York City voters agrees, however, pluralities of Black and Latino voters say the killing of innocent Palestinians should be condemned without explanation.
“As might be expected, more than 90% of Jews say both the Hamas attacks should be condemned without explanation and that Israel had no choice but to attack Hamas,” Levy said. “While all voters say Hamas attacks should be condemned without explanation by 34 points, liberals only agree by a 13-point margin. Liberals also narrowly say, 46-43%, that the death of Palestinian civilians should be condemned without hesitation.”
Republicans Happy with Trump as Nominee; Democrats Prefer a ‘Different Candidate’ than Biden
Biden has a negative 44-51% favorability rating (67-28% with Democrats), virtually the same as last month’s 45-52%. His job approval rating stands at 45-53%, down a little from 46-51% in October. Trump has a negative 34-60% favorability rating (76-17% with Republicans), down a little from 36-59% last month.
“Two-thirds of Republicans – including strong majorities of moderate and conservative Republicans, as well as men and women, young and old – want former President Donald Trump to be their nominee next year,” Levy said. “Among the 26% of Republicans wishing for ‘someone else,’ 26% say they want to see Ron DeSantis, 19% support Nikki Haley, 11% back Chris Christie, with others in single digits.
“On the Democratic side, there is much consternation, with only 41% saying they want President Joe Biden to be renominated, and a majority, 55%, saying they want a ‘different candidate’ next year. While New York City Democrats are evenly divided, at least 60% of Democrats from outside the City want a different candidate. Three-quarters of young Democrats want a nominee other than Biden,” Levy said. “There is no consensus on who that should be, as 10% say Robert Kennedy, Jr., 8% say Gavin Newsom, and 7% say Vice President Kamala Harris.”
Biden Leads Trump By 10 Points in Head-to-Head ’24 Matchup; 9 Points if RFK & West Are on Ballot
In a head-to-head matchup for President, Biden leads Trump 46-36%, little changed from 46-37% last month. In a four-way matchup, including Kennedy and Cornel West, Biden leads Trump 37-28%, with 18% for Kennedy and 5% for West. In October, Biden led Trump, Kennedy and West 38-31-13-5%.
“Despite the fact that Democrats have a 49-23% enrollment edge in New York, and despite the fact that Biden beat Trump by 23 points in 2020, 61-38%, Biden has only had a much narrower 9 or 10-point lead over Trump for the last two months,” Levy said. “Trump has the support of 87% of Republicans, while Biden only has the support of 70% of Democrats. Independents are evenly divided between the two in this hypothetical rematch.”
“If RFK in particular, and/or West make it on to the ballot, they are – at the moment – taking votes from both major party candidates. Biden’s total drops by nine points, while Trump’s drops by eight points,” Levy said. “Nearly one year out from the election, RFK has the support of 18% of New York voters – trailing Trump by only 10 points – up from 13% last month. Among independent voters it is a virtual three-way tie, as Biden gets 26%, Kennedy 25%, and Trump 24%. While only 12% of Republicans support RFK or West, they have the support of 24% of Democrats and 31% of independents.”
Odds & Ends
- Hochul has a 40-43% favorability rating, little changed from 40-44% in October. Her job approval rating stands at 48-44%, up a little from 45-45% last month.
- By a 49-34% margin, voters say they would vote for a Democrat, rather than a Republican, for their representative in Congress, little changed from 49-37% in October.
- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a 42-26% favorability rating, up from 39-30% last month. Now, 40% of voters would re-elect Gillibrand, while 35% prefer ‘someone else’. It was 39-38% in October.
- Voters strongly support allowing grocery stores to sell wine in New York, 75-19%, including at least two-thirds of voters from every party and region. The ‘lowest’ support is with Black voters, 59-33%
- By a nearly two-to-one margin, 58-30%, voters support legislation to allow a doctor to prescribe drugs that a terminally ill patient could take on their own to end their own life. It has support across the political spectrum, with independents supporting 63-24%, Democrats 60-29%, and Republicans 49-39%.
- Voters continue to support providing military and economic aid to Ukraine (52-36%) and Israel (51-37%).
- More than 80% of voters continue to say that the recent migrant influx is a serious problem (55% say very serious). The same as last month, 64% of voters say New Yorkers must work to slow the flow of migrants, compared to 29% who say the state should continue to accept and work to assimilate migrants into New York.
- The new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is not well known to New Yorkers. He is viewed favorably by 19% and unfavorably by 28%, while 53% of voters never heard of him or have no opinion about him.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted November 12-15, 2023, among 803 NYS registered voters. Of the 803 respondents, 545 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode and 258 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Dynata. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Donald Levy, Ph.D. at (518) 783-2901. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
