- If Democrat Other than Biden Runs Against Trump, the Dem Leads in All 6 States: WI by 12 Points; PA by 10; AZ by 8; GA & MI by 7; NV by 3
- Across 6 Battleground States: 59% Disapprove of the Job Biden is Doing as President; 71% Say He’s Too Old & 62% Say He Lacks Mental Sharpness to be Effective President; Only 38% Say Trump Too Old to be Effective President & 54% Say He Has Mental Sharpness
- Voters Have Unfavorable View of Both Biden (41-57%) & Trump (42-56%) Trump’s Policies Have Helped Voters, 51-34%; Biden’s Policies Hurt Voters Personally, 53-35%
Press Release NYT Registered Voters Crosstabs NYT Likely Voters Crosstabs Arizona Crosstabs Georgia Crosstabs Michigan Crosstabs Nevada Crosstabs Pennsylvania Crosstabs Wisconsin Crosstabs
“The only good news for President Joe Biden in this New York Times/Siena College poll is that it was
conducted a year before voters go to the polls,” Dr. Don Levy, Director, Siena College Research
Institute, said. “Currently, former President Donald Trump leads Biden in five of six key battleground
states – all won by Biden in 2020 – that will likely determine the winner of the 2024 presidential
election. While Biden has a narrow three-point lead in Wisconsin, Trump leads by 11 points in Nevada,
seven points in Georgia, five points in Arizona and three points in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“If the 2024 matchup featured a Democrat other than Biden running against Trump, the ‘generic’
Democrat would be ahead by seven to 12 points in five of the states and ahead by three points in
Nevada,” Levy said.
“Across the six battleground states, 59% of voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as President,
including at least 56% from each state. Additionally, Biden is viewed unfavorably by 57% of voters,
virtually the same in each of the six states. While 83% of Democrats have a favorable view of Biden,
92% of Republicans view him unfavorably, as do 60% of independents,” Levy said.
“Trump’s negative favorability rating, 42-56%, is comparable to Biden’s. He is viewed unfavorably by
at least 53% of voters in each of the six states,” Levy said. “Eight in ten Republicans view Trump
favorably but he’s viewed unfavorably by 63% of independents and 89% of Democrats.
“Seven in ten voters across all six states say that Biden is ‘just too old to be an effective president,’
including 51% of Democrats who believe that,” Levy said. “But 59% disagree that Trump is too old to
be an effective president.
“By 62-35%, voters say Biden lacks ‘the mental sharpness to an effective president,’ a position held by
94% of Republicans, 67% of independents, and 25% of Democrats. A majority of voters, 54% –
including 91% of Republicans and 53% of independents – say Trump does have the mental sharpness to be president,” Levy said.
“A majority of registered voters across the six battleground states say that Biden’s policies have hurt not helped them personally including 88% of Republicans, 53% of independents and 16% of Democrats,” Levy said. “Trump, on the other hand, has a majority of voters, 51-34%, saying his policies helped voters personally.”
