- By 58-36%, Voters Say Slow Flow of Migrants to NY, Rather Than Accept & Work to Assimilate Them
- Biden Leads Trump 47-34% (50-28% in June); Dems Divided: Biden or Other Candidate in ’24; Biden 46-50% Favorability, 1st Time Negative
- Overwhelming Majority of Dems, Plurality of Inds & ¼ of Reps Say Trump Should Have Been Indicted in Both Mar-a-Lago & Fed 2020 Election Case; NYers Divided on Biden Impeachment Inquiry: Reps & Inds, ‘Yes,’ Dems, ‘No’
- Hochul Unfavorable Rating Hits New ‘High’; Job Approval Rating Now Break Even; Lowest Ever; Has Dropped in Last 5 Polls; Down 20 Points Since January
Loudonville, NY. Voters say 82-16% that the recent influx of migrants to the state is a serious problem, with 54% saying very serious. By a 46-32% margin, they say that migrants resettling in New York over the last 20 or so years has been a ‘burden,’ not a ‘benefit’ to the state. And by 58-36%, voters say New Yorkers have already done enough and should now work to slow the flow, rather than accepting new migrants and working to assimilate them into New York, according to a new Siena College poll of registered New York State voters released today.
President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump 47-34%, down from 50-28% in June. Biden has a 46-50% favorability rating, down from 47-47% in June. Among Democrats, 47% want Biden as the party’s presidential nominee in 2024 and 46% want someone else, down from 54-40% in June. By a 58-33% margin, voters say Trump should have been indicted in the Mar-a-Lago case and by 61-32%, he should have been indicted in the 2020 election case. Voters are evenly divided on whether Biden should face a House impeachment inquiry.
“New Yorkers – including huge majorities of Democrats, Republicans, independents, upstaters and downstaters – overwhelmingly say that the recent influx of migrants to New York is a serious problem for the state,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “However, that’s where partisan agreement ends. A plurality of Democrats says that migrants resettling in New York over the last two decades has been a benefit. But, a majority of independents and two-thirds of Republicans say that migrant resettlement has been a burden to the state.
“More than three-quarters of Republicans and 60% of independents say New Yorkers have done enough and must now slow the flow of migrants to the state, rather than accept and help assimilate them into New York, while Democrats are evenly divided. Overall, New Yorkers say slow the flow of migrants, 58-36%,” Greenberg said. “By a 50-40% margin, voters support relocating new migrants from temporary New York City housing to permanent housing in communities across the state. It is strongly supported by Democrats and New York City voters, while Republicans are strongly opposed, and independents and non-City voters are closely divided but leaning toward opposition,” Greenberg said.
“Voters disapprove of the job that Hochul is doing to address the influx 51-35%. They disapprove of the job Mayor Eric Adams is doing 47-31%. And they disapprove of the job the Biden Administration is doing 59-34%,” Greenberg said. “By a narrow 42-39% margin, they approve of the job that their local elected officials are doing.”
Biden’s Lead Over Trump Down to 13 Points; Favorability Rating Under Water for 1 st Time
“Biden continues to lead Trump in New York but by only 13 points, 47-34%, down from a 22-point lead in June. Trump continues to have support from three-quarters of Republicans and Biden from three-quarters of Democrats, however, independents side with Trump by nine points,” Greenberg said. “For the first time in a Siena College poll, more New Yorkers now view Biden unfavorably, 50%, than view him favorably, 46%. His job approval rating, 47-50%, is little changed from June and remains under water.
“Currently, 70% of Democrats view Biden favorably, 71% approve of the job he’s doing, and 74% would vote for him over Trump. However, only 47% of Democrats want to see Biden as their party’s nominee next year, while 46% would prefer another Democrat,” Greenberg said.
Dems & Inds: Trump Should Have Been Indicted; Reps & Inds: Biden Should Face Impeachment Inquiry
“Well over three-quarters of Democrats think Trump should have been indicted on both federal cases – Mar-a- Lago documents and trying to overturn the 2020 election – as do a plurality of independents. However, about two-thirds of Republicans say he should not have been indicted in either case,” Greenberg said.
“If there are federal trials, New Yorkers of all stripes want to be able to watch,” Greenberg said. “Televising the trials – requiring the current prohibition to be waived – is favored by 70% of Democrats, 58% of Republicans, 54% of independents, and at least 60% of voters from every region of the state.”
Trump has a 37-56% favorability rating, up from 33-61% in June. Trump continues to dominate the primary field, with 64% of Republicans saying they would vote for him in the 2024 presidential primary, while 27% prefer ‘someone else.’ Trump’s lead among Republicans grew from June, when it was 61-34%.
“New Yorkers are divided on whether Biden should face a House impeachment inquiry for his involvement in alleged corrupt business dealings by his son and not surprisingly there is a wide partisan divide. Three-quarters of Republicans, joined by a majority of independents, say he should, while two-thirds of Democrats say he should not,” Greenberg said.
Hochul Favorability & Job Approval Ratings Hit New Lows; Continue Slow, Persistent Decline
Governor Kathy Hochul has a 40-46% favorability rating, down from 42-43% in June. Her job approval rating stands at 46-46%, down from 48-44% in June, and 56-36% in January.
“Hochul’s job approval rating has fallen in five consecutive Siena College polls since her highest ever approval in January, when she was 20 points positive, to now her lowest ever approval. In February, it was 16 points positive, 11 points in March, six in May, and four in June. It’s now break even, a loss of 20 points since the start of the year,” Greenberg said. “Voters approve of the job Hochul is doing to address climate change 46-39%, but they are break even on her managing of the state’s finances and increasing affordable housing. A majority of voters disapprove of how she’s addressing both crime and the recent influx of migrants.
“Hochul’s favorability rating also hit a new low,” Greenberg said. “She is viewed unfavorably by three-quarters of Republicans, 60% of independents and one-quarter of Democrats. It should be noted that come Thursday, she will have been Governor of New York – where half of the enrolled voters are Democrats – for two years, and never once in that time have at least 50% of voters viewed her favorably.”
Odds & Ends
- The United States Department of Justice has a 47-39% favorability rating. DOJ is viewed favorably by Democrats, 61-27%, but unfavorably by Republicans, 21-59%, and a plurality of independents, 41-46%.
- With voters under 35, Biden’s favorability rating is 16 points underwater and his job approval rating is 13 points underwater. Democrats under 35 would prefer a 2024 nominee other than Biden by nearly two-to-one. Yet, those young voters support Biden over Trump 49-35%, similar to voters 35 and older.
- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s favorability rating is 39-28%, little changed from 41-31% in June. Voters are closely divided on whether they would re-elect Gillibrand or they would prefer ‘someone else’. Forty percent say they would re-elect her and 41% prefer someone else, nearly identical to 40-40% in June.
- New Yorkers continue to be bearish on the direction of the state and country. While 39% think the state is on the right track, 48% say it’s headed in the wrong direction, little changed from 38-50% in June. It has not been in positive territory since October 2021. By a two-to-one margin, 30-62%, voters say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, little changed from 32-61% in June.
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This Siena College Poll was conducted August 13-16, 2023, among 803 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 803 respondents, 503 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode and 300 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Dynata. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
