- Voters Say Moving Local Elections to Even Years Will Be Good for NY; Limiting Election Lawsuits to 4 Counties Will be Bad for NY
- In Early ’24 Look, Voters Back Biden Over Trump 50-28%; Plurality of Voters Would Prefer ’24 Ballot that Has Neither Trump nor Biden
- DOJ Right to Indict Trump in Classified Documents Case, 58-33%; By 44-41%, Voters Say Biden Played a Part in the Decision to Indict Trump
Loudonville, NY. Voters oppose using SUNY dorms to temporarily house new migrants to New York by a 54-33% margin, and by a narrower 46-40% margin, voters also oppose relocating some new migrants from New York City to housing in other counties that is paid for by New York City, according to a new Siena College poll of registered New York State voters released today.
Pluralities of voters say that several recently passed proposals will be good for New York, including moving elections for most town and county offices to even years, requiring schools to close for Lunar New Year, creating a commission to study the impact of slavery and subsequent discrimination against African Americans, and increasing liquor store hours on Sunday from the current noon to 9pm to 10am to 10pm. A majority of voters think limiting election lawsuits to four counties will be bad for New York, and a narrow plurality think that sealing records for most felony convictions after eight years will be bad for the state.
“Voters oppose using SUNY dorms to temporarily house new migrants to New York by a 21-point margin. It’s opposed by more than three-quarters of Republicans and a majority of independents, while Democrats are evenly divided. Pluralities of young and Latino voters support using SUNY dorms to temporarily house migrants, but majorities of older, white and Black voters oppose it,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“By a narrower 46-40% margin, a plurality of voters opposes relocating migrants to counties outside New York City in housing paid for by the City,” Greenberg said. “A majority of Democrats and New York City voters support it, however, it’s opposed by Republicans, independents, downstate suburbanites and upstaters.”
“Pluralities of Republicans and independents join a majority of Democrats as voters say better than two-to-one that moving most local elections from their current odd years to even years, same as Federal and state elections, will be good for New York,” Greenberg said. “On the other side of the equation, a plurality of Democrats join majorities of Republicans and independents to say that limiting election lawsuits to only four counties in the state will be bad for New York.
“On one of the issues that got a lot of attention in the final days of session – ‘clean slate’ – New Yorkers are very mixed. Pluralities of Democrats, New York City and Black voters think sealing criminal records as proposed will be good for the state, while a majority of Republicans and pluralities of independents, downstate suburbanites, upstaters, white and Latino voters think ‘clean slate’ will be bad for New York,” Greenberg said. “Similarly, a new ‘reparations commission’ will be good for the state, according to a majority of Democrats, New York City, Black and Latino voters. A majority of Republicans and pluralities of white and non-New York City voters disagrees.”
Biden Has Large Early Lead in Potential Trump Rematch; Plurality of Voters Want ’24 Ballot Sans Either
In a 2024 rematch of President Joe Biden vs. former President Donald Trump, New York voters prefer Biden 50-28%, with 14% volunteering that they will vote for someone else. When asked which of four scenarios would be their preference for the 2024 presidential ballot, a plurality, 35%, said a Republican other than Trump and a Democrat other than Biden, 26% said Biden vs. a Republican other than Trump, 19% said Trump vs. Biden, and 11% said Trump vs. a Democrat other than Biden.
“With more than a year till the presidential election, New York begins dark blue, with Biden holding a solid lead over Trump,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, about a third of Democrats, Republicans and independents agree that they would like the 2024 ballot to not include either Biden or Trump. While 49% of Republicans prefer a scenario that includes Trump and 54% of Democrats want Biden on the ballot, for independents, only 29% want Trump on the ballot and only 32% want Biden.”
In a presidential primary, 61% of Republicans support Trump, compared to 34% who want someone else (little changed from 60-32% in May). Democrats think Biden should be renominated 54-40% (little changed from 56-40% last month). Biden’s favorability rating is 47-47%, down from 51-45% in May. His job approval rating is 47-51%, down from 51-47%. Trump has a 33-61% favorability rating, up from 30-64% last month.
By 25-Points, Voters Say DOJ Right to Indict Trump; Divided on Whether Biden Played Role in Decision
“New Yorkers say, 58-33%, that the US Justice Department made the right decision to indict Trump for
mishandling classified materials and obstructing justice. Democrats give DOJ the thumbs up 77-14%, while Republicans say thumbs down 72-21%. Independents say DOJ made the right call, 56-34%,” Greenberg said. “While 44% of voters, including 79% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats, say Biden played a part in the decision to indict Trump, 41% disagree, including 55% of Democrats. Independents were evenly divided.”
Little Movement, Continued Mixed Bag for Hochul
“Governor Kathy Hochul’s 42-43% favorability rating is up a little from 40-45% last month. Her job approval rating stands at 48-44%, barely down from 50-44% last month,” Greenberg said. “While Hochul has been touting her legislative achievements, many voters are not sharing their love with her. Her favorability and job approval ratings continue to be very mixed, with support from Democrats but even larger opposition from Republicans. Independents are not as negative on Hochul as Republicans, but they lean in that direction.”
Odds & Ends
- By 47-38%, voters support requiring school staff to refer to students by the names and pronouns the student chooses, consistent with their gender identity. Democrats support by 63-24% and independents 42-38%, while Republicans oppose it 66-22%. It is supported by 62% of voters under 35 and 43% of voters 35 and older.
- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s favorability rating is 41-31%, exactly the same as in May. Voters are evenly divided, 40-40%, on whether they would re-elect Gillibrand, or they prefer ‘someone else’, down from 43-38% in support of her re-election last month.
- Both houses of the Legislature exited the 2023 session with barely positive favorability ratings. The Assembly has a 38-36% favorability rating, down slightly from 40-36% last month. The Senate has a 41-38% favorability rating, up slightly from 41-41% last month.
###
This Siena College Poll was conducted June 20-25, 2023, among 817 New York State Registered Voters. Of the 817 respondents, 474 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode and 343 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from Dynata. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
