- Attorney General: James – 51% Henry – 40%
- State Comptroller: DiNapoli – 54% Rodriguez – 30%
- Control of US House: Dems – 54% Reps – 41%
- Environmental Bond Act: Yes – 54% No – 26%
Loudonville, NY. Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead over Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is now 11 points, down from 17 points three weeks ago. Hochul leads Zeldin 52-41%, down from 54-37% in September, according to a new Siena College Poll of likely New York State voters released today. The race for Attorney General also tightened, as Letitia James, the incumbent Democrat, now leads Republican Michael Henry 51-40%, down from 53-37% in September.
In the race for US Senator, incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer leads Republican Joe Pinion 57-37%; last month it was 55-36%. And State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, also a Democrat, continues to have a big lead over Republican Paul Rodriguez, now 54-30%, little changed from 52-29% last month. Support for the $4.2 billion environmental bond act remains strong, 54-26%, compared to 55-26% in September.
“Over the last three weeks, Zeldin has narrowed the deficit he must overcome from 17 points to 11 points in trying to become the first Republican in 20 years to win statewide. However, with three weeks to go, Hochul maintains the upper hand, based on the 84-10% support she gets from Democrats, who represent half of the state’s enrolled voters,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “The good news for Zeldin is that he’s further solidified his Republican support, 81-12%, up from 77-17%, and has increased his lead among independents from three points to nine points, 49-40%.
“Hochul maintains a commanding lead in New York City, 70-23%, however, her five-point lead in the downstate suburbs in September has turned into a four-point lead for Zeldin in October. Zeldin’s lead upstate is four points, up from one point in September,” Greenberg said. “Women continue to give Hochul a two-to-one lead, 61-32%, however, men have flipped and now favor Zeldin by five points, after favoring Hochul by four points last month. Hochul has an overwhelming 92-2% lead with Black voters, a 56-38% lead with Latinos, and white voters are virtually evenly divided, after favoring Hochul by 10 points in September.”
Hochul has a 45-41% favorability rating, down a little from 47-40% in September. Her job approval rating is also down a little to 52-45%, from 53-42% last month. Zeldin has a negative 37-41% favorability rating, compared to 31-33% in September. Only 21% of likely voters have no opinion about him, down from 36% last month.
“Two-thirds of Democrats continue to view Hochul favorably and she’s only underwater with independents by five points currently, compared to 15 points last month. However, after making some gains with Republicans last month, 23% viewed her favorably, Republicans now view Hochul unfavorably 15-77%,” Greenberg said. “Not surprisingly, Zeldin has become more well known to voters as the campaign has heated up. However, one in five voters still doesn’t have an opinion about him, and among those who do, he remains slightly underwater.
“While Democrats are bullish on the direction of the state, Republicans overwhelmingly, and independents by a wide margin are not. That works to Zeldin’s advantage, as does the fact that the issues most important to voters – at least as of three weeks ago – play more into the messaging of the Zeldin campaign rather than the Hochul campaign,” Greenberg said. “That said, Zeldin must still overcome a wide enrollment disadvantage, and must attract more than 10% of Democrats and 49% of independents to be successful in New York. Hochul maintains a double-digit lead and simply needs Democrats to vote. Simple in theory. Three weeks to go.”
James’ Lead for AG Tightens; Schumer & DiNapoli Maintain 20-Point Leads
“One of the main reasons Schumer and DiNapoli have wider leads than Hochul and James is independent voters. Independents favor Republicans Zeldin (9 points) and Henry (10 points), while favoring Democrats Schumer (8 points) and DiNapoli (12 points),” Greenberg said. “Pinion, Henry and Rodriguez all face similar challenges: they remain unknown to the vast majority of voters, they are underfunded and they are running against incumbents who have won a combined eight statewide races.”
Voters: Yes on Bond Act; Dems Should Control US House
“By a 54-26% margin, voters say they intend to vote yes on the $4.2 billion environmental bond act on November’s ballot. That is virtually unchanged from 55-26% support last month,” Greenberg said. “New York voters want to see the Democrats retain control of the US House, 54-41%, little changed from 54-39% in September. Not surprisingly, 87% of Democrats and 85% of Republicans want to see their party control the House, while independents are evenly divided, 46-46%. In August, independents favored Republican control by two points and in September they sided with Democrats by four points.”
This Siena College survey was conducted October 12-14 2022 by telephone calls in English to 707 self-identified likely voters in New York State. Telephone sampling was conducted via a weighted stratified dual frame sample of landline and cell phone drawn from the L-2 database of registered voters. Data was statistically adjusted by region, race/ethnicity, political party, education, statewide vote pattern in the 2020 election, and gender modeled to a composition of the electorate in 2014 and 2018 to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.