Spectrum News / Syracuse.com / Siena College 22nd Congressional District Poll:
Brindisi 46% – Tenney 45% – Undecided 9%
Brindisi Continues to Do Better with Dems than Tenney Does with Reps; Independents Now Side with Brindisi; Men for Tenney & Women for Brindisi
Favorability: Tenney, 42-47% (42-47% Aug); Brindisi, 46-37% (44-27% Aug)
Loudonville, NY. Republican Representative Claudia Tenney has the support of 45 percent of likely voters, one point behind Democratic Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi, supported by 46 percent, according to a new Spectrum News/Syracuse.com/Siena College poll of likely 22nd C.D. voters released today. Brindisi has a 46-37 percent favorability rating (44-27 percent in August) compared to Tenney’s negative 42-47 percent favorability rating (identical to August).
“While the campaign, the ads and the attacks have been heated over the last eight weeks, the reaction by voters has been muted, as voters appear to be locked in with little change in their views since August. The race was virtually dead even in August and it’s virtually dead even today. Brindisi has become a little better known and still has a positive favorability rating. Tenney’s favorability is exactly the same as it was in August, slightly under water,” Greenberg said.
“Brindisi continues to do a better job of holding Democrats than Tenney does holding Republicans – although one of every six Democrats is currently supporting Tenney – and he has opened a double-digit lead with independents, who were closely divided in August. Still, nine percent of voters remains undecided,” Greenberg said. “Each region of the district remains closely divided as well. Brindisi leads by four points in the south and seven points in the central portion of the district, while Tenney has a five-point lead in the north, which is expected to produce more voters than either of the other regions.
“The gender gap continues as Tenney leads by 11 points with men – who strongly approve of President Trump and want Republicans controlling the House – and Brindisi leads by 13 points with women, who disapprove of Trump and slightly favor Democratic control of the House,” Greenberg said.
“This is a district with more than 30,000 more Republicans than Democrats and where Republicans historically turnout in even larger numbers than their enrollment advantage in midterm elections. This is a district where Trump’s approval rating is positive by 10 points, 53-43 percent, and voters want Republicans controlling the House by a 13-point margin,” Greenberg said. “Yet, this is a district that is as closely divided as it can be about whether or not to re-elect its freshman Republican Representative.
“There’s a lot of campaigning still to come in this slugfest between Tenney and Brindisi. Voters can look forward to more ads, more heated rhetoric attacking and defending each of the candidates, and more hand shaking and door knocking in the closing days,” Greenberg said. “Will undecided voters – about two-thirds of whom are Republicans – break the traditional way towards a challenger or will they instead follow their party enrollment and support the incumbent? Will the President’s popularity help carry Tenney to victory? Or will Democrats turn out in larger numbers than they traditionally do in midterm elections and allow a blue wave to ride Brindisi to victory? Answers on November 6.”
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This Spectrum News/Syracuse.com/Siena College 22nd C.D. survey was conducted October 15-18, 2018 by telephone calls in English to
501 likely 22nd C.D. voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, and gender. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.