The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Virginia 07 Poll:
Republican Incumbent Brat Leads Democrat Spanberger 47-43%
Voters Prefers Republicans to Control House 48-42%; Give President Trump Breakeven 47-46% Job Approval Rating
Favorability Ratings: Spanberger, 37-22 Percent; Brat, 44-30 Percent
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Congressman Dave Brat leads his Democratic challenger, former CIA operations officer Abigail Spanberger, 47-43 percent, according to a new New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of likely Virgina 7th Congressional District voters. Spanberger has a 37-22 percent favorability rating, compared to a 44-30 percent favorability rating for Brat.
Likely voters in this district that includes the Richmond area as well as the surrounding countryside prefer Republicans rather than Democrats control the House of Representatives next year by, 48-42 percent. Voters give President Trump a breakeven job approval rating with 47 percent approving the job he is doing and 46 percent disapproving and by 52-39 percent they support the investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller into the Trump campaign’s ties with Russia.
This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll is part of an ongoing project polling pivotal Congressional races across the country. The data is published live on https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot. This press release highlights the key findings and provides access in the cross-tabulations to the entire survey as well as how demographic groups answered each question.
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This New York Times Upshot/Siena College VA 07 survey was conducted September 10-11, 2018 by telephone calls in English to 501 VA 07 voters. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior. This combined probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region within the district and gender. Polling support for this project provided by Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis & Company, and The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858 or Don Levy at 518-783-2901. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.