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NY 1 News / Siena College 11th Congressional District Republican Primary Poll:
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Grimm Leads Donovan by 10 Points, 47-37 Percent
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Former Congressman Bests Current Congressman by
13 Points in Staten Island and by 18 Points with Women
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Both Viewed Favorably by Likely Republican Primary Voters;
Trump Viewed Favorably 82-15 Percent
Press Release Crosstabs
Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Representative Dan Donovan trails former Republican Representative Michael Grimm by 10 points, 47-37 percent, with three weeks until the Republican primary, according to a NY 1 News/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely 11th C.D. Republican primary voters. Grimm leads 49-36 percent in Staten Island, while Donovan has a narrow 40-37 percent lead in Brooklyn. While men are nearly evenly divided, Grimm has a large 50-32 percent lead with women.
Both candidates have comparable favorability ratings, with Donovan at 57-31 percent and Grimm at
57-33 percent. President Donald Trump is viewed overwhelmingly favorably, 82-15 percent, and Republican voters in the district say the country is headed on the right track by a whopping 79-14 percent.
“In a clash of Staten Island titans, Donovan, the former district attorney, trails Grimm, the convicted former congressman, by double digits. While Donovan has a too-close-to-call three-point lead in the Brooklyn portion of the district, Grimm has a wide 13-point lead among Staten Island Republicans. Men are evenly divided, however, women favor Grimm by 18 points,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Approximately 60 percent of voters for each candidate say they are absolutely certain of their choice, while fewer than
10 percent of each candidates’ supporters say they are not very or not at all certain of their choice.
“Each candidate is viewed favorably by 57 percent of the likely electorate. By a 46-34 percent margin, voters say that Grimm did a better job representing them in Washington than did Donovan,” Greenberg said. “Voters say Grimm would be better than Donovan – by an eight-point margin on each – on addressing health care costs and resolving tensions with North Korea. Voters more strongly say Grimm would be better on fixing immigration policy by an 18-point margin.”
“Despite the fact that President Trump endorsed Donovan – after the first night of calling for this poll but before the majority of calls were completed – by an overwhelming 25-point margin, 54-29 percent, voters say Grimm will do a better job working with the President,” Greenberg said. “And while voters say the country is headed in the right direction by better than five-to-one – often a harbinger of good news for an incumbent – voters appear to not give Donovan much credit for helping steer the country in the right direction.
“More than 70 percent of voters have been touched by the Donovan campaign – through commercials or direct contact by the candidate or his campaign – while just under 60 percent of voters say the same about the Grimm campaign,” Greenberg said. “By a 32-25 percent margin, voters say that Donovan has been running the more negative campaign. Not surprisingly, 57 percent of Grimm supporters say Donovan has been more negative, while 56 percent of Donovan voters place the blame for negative campaigning on Grimm.
“One bright spot for Donovan is that voters think he will be the stronger candidate in November. By a
46-35 percent margin, Republican primary voters think that Donovan has a better chance of winning the seat against a Democratic opponent in November. While only eight percent of Donovan supporters think Grimm is more likely to win in November, 22 percent of Grimm supporters see Donovan as the stronger November Republican,” Greenberg said.
“Democrats must certainly be rooting for Grimm to win the primary since only 55 percent of Donovan supporters currently say they will support Grimm in November, compared to 81 percent of Grimm supporters who say they will vote for Donovan in the general election,” Greenberg said.
“This has been a tough campaign to date and it is likely to get even tougher in the final three weeks. Donovan has a lot of ground to make up, however, Grimm is not yet over 50 percent support. Which candidate will be able to tap into the Trump love – Donovan, who has the President’s endorsement, or Grimm, who voters see as better working with Trump? And which candidate does a better job of getting his voters to the polls in a primary with traditionally low turnout? Those may be what tip this race in the end. Three weeks is a long time in politics and we’ll certainly be watching this race closely,” Greenberg said.
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This NY 1 News/Siena College 11th C.D. Republican Primary survey was conducted May 29-June 3, 2018 by telephone calls to 513 likely voters. Calls were made to a sample of Republican voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their stated likelihood to vote and by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history. This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered age, county, and gender. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, please call Steven Greenberg at 518-469-9858. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.
