Likely Voters Oppose ConCon More Than Two-to-One, 57-25%

Likely Voters Oppose ConCon More Than Two-to-One, 57-25%

By Similar 60-29% Margin, Voters Say About ConCon: Nothing
Good Will Get Done, Rather than Chance to Improve Lives of NYers

Pension Forfeiture Amendment Has Huge 82-14% Support;
Adirondack Land Bank Amendment Has Tepid 46-35% Support

Loudonville, NY. By a wide margin, 57-25 percent, likely voters say they will vote ‘no’ on the Constitutional Convention proposal on next week’s ballot. By a similar 60-29 percent margin, likely voters say it ‘will be an expensive waste of time,’ rather than a ‘once in a generation opportunity to bring our State Constitution into the 21st Century,’ according to a new Siena College Poll of likely 2017 New York State voters released today.

More than one-third of likely voters say they’ve heard or read a great deal about ConCon and another 27 percent say they’ve read or heard some. Only 19 percent say they’ve read or heard nothing about ConCon. The proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot related to pension forfeiture for public officers convicted of felonies related to their official duties has overwhelming support, 82-14 percent, including at least 76 percent support from every region and party. The amendment related to the land bank for the Adirondacks and Catskills is supported 46-35 percent, with support from a plurality of voters from every region and party.

“If history is any guide, the turnout in next week’s elections figures to be very light. In 2013, fewer than one in three registered New York voters cast their ballots. So, the decision of whether or not New York should hold a Constitutional Convention in 2019 will likely be decided by a small minority of New Yorkers – those who both vote in Tuesday’s election, and remember to flip the ballot to the back to vote on ConCon,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “With less than a week till election day, those likely voters are decidedly negative about supporting ConCon. In fact, only one-quarter of likely voters say they’re prepared to vote ‘yes.’

“While a small plurality of likely New York City voters opposes ConCon, strong majorities of downstate suburbanites and upstate voters oppose it. Democrats and independents oppose ConCon by about two-to-one, while Republicans oppose it better than three-to-one,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, ConCon unites voters across the ideological spectrum. It is opposed by 55 percent of moderates, 56 percent of liberals and 60 percent of conservatives. Non-union households oppose ConCon by 23 points and union households oppose it by 50 points.”

“Upstaters, downstaters and voters from all parties also strongly agree that ConCon is more likely to be an expensive waste of time where nothing good will get done than it is to be a once in a generation opportunity to improve the lives and safeguard the rights of New Yorkers,” Greenberg said. “On this question as well, there is no ideological difference as 59 percent of liberals and moderates and 63 percent of conservatives say ConCon will be an expensive waste of time.”

Strong Support for Several Issues that Could be ConCon Topics of Discussion

“Whether or not ConCon is approved, these likely voters – regardless of party, geography, gender, race, income, or ideology – overwhelmingly support term limits for legislators and state elected officials, eliminating the LLC loophole, creating a system of initiative and referendum, and making the State Legislature full-time, with a ban on outside employment,” Greenberg said. “Likely voters are closely divided on legalizing recreational use of marijuana, and they oppose limiting collective bargaining rights for public employees and revising state policies to allow increased economic development in the Adirondacks.”

Likely 2017 Voters Give Lower Ratings to Cuomo & Legislature; Better Ratings to Trump & Gillibrand

Governor Andrew Cuomo’s favorability rating is 52-43 percent with likely voters, down from 57-35 percent last month among registered voters. The Assembly has a negative 39-44 percent favorability with likely voters, down from 43-37 percent last month among registered voters. The Senate has a negative 37-48 percent favorability with likely voters, down from 47-37 percent last month among registered voters. President Donald Trump has a negative 31-65 percent favorability with likely voters, up a little from negative 28-68 percent last month among registered voters. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a 58-26 percent favorability with likely voters, up a little from 50-23 percent last month among registered voters.

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This Siena College Poll was conducted October 25-29, 2017 by telephone calls conducted in English to 814 New York State likely voters. Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter File via both land and cell phones. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on their responses to a five question likely-to-vote screen. This probability to vote score was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered age, gender, race and 2013 voter turnout by party and region. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs: www.Siena.edu/SCRI/SNY.

SCRI November Political Press Release

November 2017 Political Crosstabs